The first Saturday in May is fast approaching, and that means only one thing in US horse racing circles – the Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses is obviously a wonderful standalone event, but it represents just the first slice of a bigger cake, the Triple Crown. There’s always something extra special when you see a Kentucky Derby winner with a real chance of winning the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. There’s an extra buzz about it, as fans know a chance of making history is on the cards.
As is well-documented, there have been 13 Triple Crown winners: Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018). Could we see another Triple Crown winner in 2025? It’s always possible.
Journalism tipped for Derby success
Getting over the line first in the Kentucky Derby is the first order of business, and, as usual, the online horse betting markets are becoming clearer as we reach Kentucky Derby Day. Journalism is the clear favorite, and the Michael McCarthy-trained horse has consolidated that position ever since winning the Santa Anita Derby in early April. What was notable in that race was the fact he beat fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Citizen Bull by 10 lengths.
We can’t say for sure that Journalism has the same type of stature as recent Triple Crown winners like Justify or American Pharoah or Justify, although he is probably closer to the latter in terms of experience and the challenges he’s faced on the Kentucky Derby Trail. Both of those horses were post-time favorites in the 2013 (American Pharoah) and 2018 (Justify) Kentucky Derby races and their odds are very similar to what we expect from Journalism on race day.
Another name could come to the fore
Of course, post-time odds mean very little when all is said and done. We mentioned Justify, and he is actually the last race-day favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. On the balance of probabilities alone, you are more likely to see someone further down the card make it across the finish line first. The Derby has a strike rate of about 35% for favorites, but there have been no starting favorite winners since Justify in 2018.
Nevertheless, the next step is the Preakness Stakes. Several Derby winners have come close in recent years, but again, it’s a tall order, and we have to look back at Justify to find the last horse to do the double. Indeed, in recent years, there’s been a variety of issues and mishaps that have meant some Derby winners don’t even attempt to go for the Triple Crown. That said, 2024 Derby winner Mystik Dan made a really good fist of things when finishing 2nd in the Preakness Stakes and 3rd in the Belmont Stakes.
We will, of course, have to wait and see what happens in the Derby. You can kind of sense post-race whether you are looking at a bona fide Triple Crown chance. Unfortunately, that hasn’t really been the case for several years. This time around, it might be Journalism or someone else. We will find out after the fastest two minutes in sports takes place on May 3rd.
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